🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 15, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

7
Games
5
🔵 Edge (NP)
4/5
🔵 Correct (NP)
4/5 (80%)
🔵 Win Rate
5
🟢 Edge (AT)
4/5
🟢 Correct (AT)
4/5 (80%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-14		BKN @ PHIBKN 97 — PHI 104PHI—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#2
2026-03-14		MIL @ ATLMIL 99 — ATL 122ATLATL Q3 07:21 (def before:-13 after:-15)🟢 Edge → ATL ✅🟢 Edge → ATL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 09:06ATLATL:67 MIL:59McCollum 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Johnson 7 AST)
Q3 08:08ATLATL:70 MIL:59McCollum 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Okongwu 3 AST)
Q3 08:04ATLATL:73 MIL:59McCollum 24' 3PT Turnaround Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Okongwu 4 AST)
Q3 07:42MILATL:73 MIL:61Porter Jr. 2' Driving Layup (8 PTS)
Q3 07:40ATLATL:74 MIL:61Alexander-Walker Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)
⭐ Q3 07:21ATLATL:76 MIL:61McCollum 6' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Johnson 8 AST)
Q3 07:13MILATL:76 MIL:63Kuzma 7' Driving Hook Shot (11 PTS) (Porter Jr. 6 AST)
Q3 07:01ATLATL:78 MIL:63Daniels 3' Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Johnson 9 AST)
Q3 06:51MILATL:78 MIL:65Porter Jr. 2' Driving Layup (10 PTS)
#3
2026-03-14		CHA @ SASCHA 102 — SAS 115SASCHA Q3 02:22 (def before:+13 after:+10)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 03:35CHASAS:82 CHA:71Knueppel Free Throw 1 of 3 (17 PTS)
Q3 03:35CHASAS:82 CHA:72Knueppel Free Throw 2 of 3 (18 PTS)
Q3 03:35CHASAS:82 CHA:73Knueppel Free Throw 3 of 3 (19 PTS)
Q3 03:04SASSAS:84 CHA:73Bryant 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (4 PTS) (Fox 4 AST)
Q3 02:30SASSAS:86 CHA:73Kornet Tip Layup Shot (4 PTS)
🟩 Q3 02:22CHASAS:86 CHA:76Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (White 2 AST)
Q3 02:05SASSAS:88 CHA:76Kornet 4' Alley Oop Layup (6 PTS) (Wembanyama 4 AST)
Q3 01:46CHASAS:88 CHA:77Williams Free Throw 1 of 3 (4 PTS)
Q3 01:46CHASAS:88 CHA:78Williams Free Throw 2 of 3 (5 PTS)
#4
2026-03-14		WAS @ BOSWAS 100 — BOS 111BOSBOS Q3 08:04 (def before:-22 after:-25)🟢 Edge → BOS ✅🟢 Edge → BOS ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 09:50WASBOS:70 WAS:45Coulibaly Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q3 09:28WASBOS:70 WAS:48Riley 26' 3PT Running Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Coulibaly 1 AST)
Q3 09:05WASBOS:70 WAS:49Sarr Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 08:51BOSBOS:73 WAS:49White 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Hauser 2 AST)
Q3 08:19WASBOS:73 WAS:51Coulibaly Running Alley Oop Dunk Shot (12 PTS) (Young 5 AST)
⭐ Q3 08:04BOSBOS:76 WAS:51Tatum 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (14 PTS)
Q3 07:11BOSBOS:79 WAS:51Hauser 29' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Tatum 6 AST)
Q3 06:37BOSBOS:81 WAS:51Tatum 2' Driving Layup (16 PTS)
Q3 06:28WASBOS:81 WAS:53Johnson 10' Driving Floating Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Young 6 AST)
#5
2026-03-14		ORL @ MIAORL 121 — MIA 117ORLMIA Q3 03:31 (def before:+12 after:+11)
ORL Q3 10:28 (def before:-16 after:-17)
76-gap: 417.0s apart		🟢 Edge → ORL ✅🟢 Edge → ORL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q2 00:32ORLMIA:55 ORL:71Bane 6' Driving Layup (7 PTS)
Q3 11:42MIAMIA:57 ORL:71Mitchell 7' Driving Floating Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Herro 2 AST)
Q3 11:13ORLMIA:57 ORL:73da Silva Tip Layup Shot (6 PTS)
Q3 10:56MIAMIA:59 ORL:73Ware Tip Layup Shot (6 PTS)
Q3 10:28ORLMIA:59 ORL:75Bane 14' Pullup Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Carter Jr. 2 AST)
🟩 Q3 10:28ORLMIA:59 ORL:76Bane Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS)
Q3 10:02ORLMIA:59 ORL:77Banchero Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 10:02ORLMIA:59 ORL:78Banchero Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 09:47MIAMIA:61 ORL:78Herro 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Larsson 2 AST)
Q3 08:39MIAMIA:64 ORL:78Adebayo 26' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Herro 3 AST)
Q3 08:25ORLMIA:64 ORL:80Banchero 4' Driving Dunk (14 PTS) (Bane 3 AST)
Q3 07:23MIAMIA:66 ORL:80Mitchell 5' Running Reverse Layup (12 PTS) (Herro 4 AST)
Q3 06:43ORLMIA:66 ORL:82Bane 5' Putback Layup (12 PTS)
Q3 06:43ORLMIA:66 ORL:83Bane Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)
Q3 06:20ORLMIA:66 ORL:84Banchero Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 06:20ORLMIA:66 ORL:85Banchero Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 06:06MIAMIA:67 ORL:85Mitchell Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)
Q3 06:06MIAMIA:68 ORL:85Mitchell Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)
Q3 05:21MIAMIA:70 ORL:85Jaquez Jr. 6' Running Layup (13 PTS)
Q3 04:42ORLMIA:70 ORL:87Banchero 4' Driving Finger Roll Layup (18 PTS)
Q3 04:16MIAMIA:73 ORL:87Adebayo 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Powell 2 AST)
Q3 03:47MIAMIA:75 ORL:87Jaquez Jr. 3' Running Layup (15 PTS)
⭐ Q3 03:31MIAMIA:76 ORL:87Adebayo Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)
Q3 02:41ORLMIA:76 ORL:90Banchero 25' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Carter 2 AST)
Q3 02:21MIAMIA:78 ORL:90Powell 6' Driving Reverse Layup (8 PTS) (Jaquez Jr. 4 AST)
Q3 02:11ORLMIA:78 ORL:91Banchero Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)
#6
2026-03-14		DEN @ LALDEN 125 — LAL 127LALDEN Q3 03:52 (def before:+5 after:+3)🟢 Edge → DEN ❌🟢 Edge → DEN ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 05:14DENLAL:77 DEN:67Hardaway Jr. Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 04:52LALLAL:79 DEN:67Doncic 10' Pullup Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Ayton 2 AST)
Q3 04:29DENLAL:79 DEN:70Johnson 27' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Braun 2 AST)
Q3 04:07DENLAL:79 DEN:73Jokic 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Braun 3 AST)
Q3 04:07DENLAL:79 DEN:74Jokic Free Throw 1 of 1 (18 PTS)
🟩 Q3 03:52DENLAL:79 DEN:76Jokic 2' Running Dunk (20 PTS)
Q3 03:34LALLAL:81 DEN:76Reaves 2' Driving Finger Roll Layup (18 PTS)
Q3 03:20LALLAL:83 DEN:76Doncic 15' Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Reaves 6 AST)
Q3 02:51DENLAL:83 DEN:78Jokic 2' Putback Layup (22 PTS)
#7
2026-03-14		SAC @ LACSAC 118 — LAC 109SACSAC Q3 07:40 (def before:-12 after:-14)🟢 Edge → SAC ✅🟢 Edge → SAC ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 10:02LACLAC:58 SAC:70Leonard 4' Running Layup (21 PTS) (Lopez 2 AST)
Q3 09:48SACLAC:58 SAC:72DeRozan 17' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Westbrook 6 AST)
Q3 09:29LACLAC:60 SAC:72Garland 4' Driving Layup (10 PTS) (Dunn 2 AST)
Q3 09:19SACLAC:60 SAC:74Raynaud 7' Floating Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Westbrook 7 AST)
Q3 09:04LACLAC:62 SAC:74Leonard 15' Pullup Jump Shot (23 PTS)
🟩 Q3 07:40SACLAC:62 SAC:76Westbrook 4' Driving Layup (9 PTS)
Q3 07:20LACLAC:65 SAC:76Leonard 26' 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Garland 3 AST)
Q3 06:58LACLAC:66 SAC:76Garland Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 06:58LACLAC:67 SAC:76Garland Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)

Generated 2026-03-15 03:00 ET · nba_api · Rule v4